{
  "decision_id": "dec_7bb83190-fdee-4dea-8092-567e6a8d7cf9",
  "decision_version": "0.3.0",
  "as_of": "2026-08-10T23:59:59.000Z",
  "created_at": "2026-08-11T03:42:33.163Z",
  "objective": "maximize_expected_incremental_contribution_profit",
  "currency": "USD",
  "budget": 100,
  "experimental": true,
  "incrementality_status": "UNVALIDATED_FORWARD",
  "expected_incremental_contribution_profit": null,
  "request_hash_sha256": "3d7a5376a146febefb8ac4854734432c01d040021dc027d13468717f5faad588",
  "methodology": {
    "platform_neutral_core": true,
    "allocation_policy": {
      "scale_pool_share": 0.7,
      "keep_pool_share": 0.1,
      "exploration_pool_share": 0.2,
      "exploration_products": 2
    },
    "warning": "Promotion-attributed orders/revenue are platform attribution, not causal lift. Expected incremental contribution profit remains null until forward/controlled validation."
  },
  "recommendations": [
    {
      "product_id": "alpha",
      "product_name": "Established high-margin winner",
      "inventory": null,
      "cost_confidence": "high",
      "recent_30d_revenue": 1300,
      "recent_30d_units": 26,
      "recent_90d_revenue": 1300,
      "days_since_last_sale": 5.999988425925926,
      "momentum": 1300,
      "estimated_unit_revenue": 50,
      "estimated_unit_variable_cost": 30,
      "estimated_unit_contribution_pre_promotion": 20,
      "estimated_contribution_margin_pre_promotion": 0.4,
      "promotion_views": 17000,
      "promotion_clicks": 260,
      "promotion_orders_attributed": 20,
      "promotion_revenue_attributed": 1000,
      "promotion_spend": 95,
      "promotion_ctr": 0.015294117647058824,
      "promotion_cvr_observed": 0.07692307692307693,
      "posterior_conversion_rate": 0.07096774193548387,
      "estimated_cpc": 0.36538461538461536,
      "promotion_roas_attributed": 10.526315789473685,
      "estimated_break_even_roas": 2.5,
      "attribution_based_contribution_return_proxy": 4.2105263157894735,
      "expected_contribution_per_click_proxy": 1.053970223325062,
      "evidence_confidence": 0.922211282601362,
      "recommended_promotion_share": 0.3,
      "expected_incremental_contribution_profit": null,
      "incrementality_status": "UNVALIDATED_FORWARD",
      "demand_score": 0.7125,
      "confidence_score": 0.9533267695608172,
      "opportunity_score": 0.7422076769560818,
      "exploration_score": 0.5724327434797276,
      "action": "SCALE",
      "selected_for_exploration": false,
      "reason": "Strong demand/economics with enough promotion evidence to justify a high-priority allocation; promotion attribution remains non-causal.",
      "recommended_promotion_amount": 30,
      "recent_sales_baseline_rank": 2,
      "raw_roas_baseline_rank": 1,
      "demand_baseline_rank": 2
    },
    {
      "product_id": "beta",
      "product_name": "High revenue but weak margin",
      "inventory": null,
      "cost_confidence": "high",
      "recent_30d_revenue": 1900,
      "recent_30d_units": 38,
      "recent_90d_revenue": 1900,
      "days_since_last_sale": 6.999988425925926,
      "momentum": 1900,
      "estimated_unit_revenue": 50,
      "estimated_unit_variable_cost": 45,
      "estimated_unit_contribution_pre_promotion": 5,
      "estimated_contribution_margin_pre_promotion": 0.1,
      "promotion_views": 25000,
      "promotion_clicks": 395,
      "promotion_orders_attributed": 15,
      "promotion_revenue_attributed": 750,
      "promotion_spend": 165,
      "promotion_ctr": 0.0158,
      "promotion_cvr_observed": 0.0379746835443038,
      "posterior_conversion_rate": 0.038202247191011236,
      "estimated_cpc": 0.4177215189873418,
      "promotion_roas_attributed": 4.545454545454546,
      "estimated_break_even_roas": 10,
      "attribution_based_contribution_return_proxy": 0.45454545454545453,
      "expected_contribution_per_click_proxy": -0.2267102830322856,
      "evidence_confidence": 0.9204001789433194,
      "recommended_promotion_share": 0.251948,
      "expected_incremental_contribution_profit": null,
      "incrementality_status": "UNVALIDATED_FORWARD",
      "demand_score": 0.8875000000000001,
      "confidence_score": 0.9522401073659916,
      "opportunity_score": 0.7083490107365991,
      "exploration_score": 0.5946699642113361,
      "action": "KEEP",
      "selected_for_exploration": false,
      "reason": "Positive economics or demand signal, but evidence is not strong enough for SCALE.",
      "recommended_promotion_amount": 25.19,
      "recent_sales_baseline_rank": 1,
      "raw_roas_baseline_rank": 2,
      "demand_baseline_rank": 1
    },
    {
      "product_id": "gamma",
      "product_name": "Emerging product with little ad evidence",
      "inventory": null,
      "cost_confidence": "medium",
      "recent_30d_revenue": 500,
      "recent_30d_units": 10,
      "recent_90d_revenue": 500,
      "days_since_last_sale": 2.9999884259259257,
      "momentum": 500,
      "estimated_unit_revenue": 50,
      "estimated_unit_variable_cost": 25,
      "estimated_unit_contribution_pre_promotion": 25,
      "estimated_contribution_margin_pre_promotion": 0.5,
      "promotion_views": 250,
      "promotion_clicks": 5,
      "promotion_orders_attributed": 0,
      "promotion_revenue_attributed": 0,
      "promotion_spend": 2,
      "promotion_ctr": 0.02,
      "promotion_cvr_observed": 0,
      "posterior_conversion_rate": 0.03636363636363636,
      "estimated_cpc": 0.4,
      "promotion_roas_attributed": 0,
      "estimated_break_even_roas": 2,
      "attribution_based_contribution_return_proxy": 0,
      "expected_contribution_per_click_proxy": 0.509090909090909,
      "evidence_confidence": 0.0228002440459162,
      "recommended_promotion_share": 0.228241,
      "expected_incremental_contribution_profit": null,
      "incrementality_status": "UNVALIDATED_FORWARD",
      "demand_score": 0.5375000000000001,
      "confidence_score": 0.35368014642754975,
      "opportunity_score": 0.592243014642755,
      "exploration_score": 0.7304399511908168,
      "action": "TEST",
      "selected_for_exploration": true,
      "reason": "Exploration allocation: promising economics/demand with limited promotion evidence; fund learning rather than assume performance.",
      "recommended_promotion_amount": 22.82,
      "recent_sales_baseline_rank": 3,
      "raw_roas_baseline_rank": 3,
      "demand_baseline_rank": 3
    },
    {
      "product_id": "epsilon",
      "product_name": "New high-margin exploration candidate",
      "inventory": null,
      "cost_confidence": "low",
      "recent_30d_revenue": 400,
      "recent_30d_units": 5,
      "recent_90d_revenue": 400,
      "days_since_last_sale": 1.999988425925926,
      "momentum": 400,
      "estimated_unit_revenue": 80,
      "estimated_unit_variable_cost": 30,
      "estimated_unit_contribution_pre_promotion": 50,
      "estimated_contribution_margin_pre_promotion": 0.625,
      "promotion_views": 0,
      "promotion_clicks": 0,
      "promotion_orders_attributed": 0,
      "promotion_revenue_attributed": 0,
      "promotion_spend": 0,
      "promotion_ctr": 0,
      "promotion_cvr_observed": 0,
      "posterior_conversion_rate": 0.04,
      "estimated_cpc": 0,
      "promotion_roas_attributed": 0,
      "estimated_break_even_roas": 1.6,
      "attribution_based_contribution_return_proxy": 0,
      "expected_contribution_per_click_proxy": 2,
      "evidence_confidence": 0,
      "recommended_promotion_share": 0.219811,
      "expected_incremental_contribution_profit": null,
      "incrementality_status": "UNVALIDATED_FORWARD",
      "demand_score": 0.36250000000000004,
      "confidence_score": 0.26,
      "opportunity_score": 0.564125,
      "exploration_score": 0.713125,
      "action": "TEST",
      "selected_for_exploration": true,
      "reason": "Exploration allocation: promising economics/demand with limited promotion evidence; fund learning rather than assume performance.",
      "recommended_promotion_amount": 21.98,
      "recent_sales_baseline_rank": 4,
      "raw_roas_baseline_rank": 5,
      "demand_baseline_rank": 4
    },
    {
      "product_id": "delta",
      "product_name": "Stale product",
      "inventory": null,
      "cost_confidence": "medium",
      "recent_30d_revenue": 0,
      "recent_30d_units": 0,
      "recent_90d_revenue": 0,
      "days_since_last_sale": 101.99998842592592,
      "momentum": 0,
      "estimated_unit_revenue": 0,
      "estimated_unit_variable_cost": 0,
      "estimated_unit_contribution_pre_promotion": 0,
      "estimated_contribution_margin_pre_promotion": 0,
      "promotion_views": 2500,
      "promotion_clicks": 38,
      "promotion_orders_attributed": 0,
      "promotion_revenue_attributed": 0,
      "promotion_spend": 12,
      "promotion_ctr": 0.0152,
      "promotion_cvr_observed": 0,
      "posterior_conversion_rate": 0.022727272727272728,
      "estimated_cpc": 0.3157894736842105,
      "promotion_roas_attributed": 0,
      "estimated_break_even_roas": null,
      "attribution_based_contribution_return_proxy": 0,
      "expected_contribution_per_click_proxy": -0.3157894736842105,
      "evidence_confidence": 0.14779479119322367,
      "recommended_promotion_share": 0,
      "expected_incremental_contribution_profit": null,
      "incrementality_status": "UNVALIDATED_FORWARD",
      "demand_score": 0,
      "confidence_score": 0.42867687471593424,
      "opportunity_score": 0.06536768747159342,
      "exploration_score": 0.17044104176135527,
      "action": "PAUSE",
      "selected_for_exploration": false,
      "reason": "Low current opportunity score, weak economics, stale demand, or insufficient evidence relative to better portfolio alternatives.",
      "recommended_promotion_amount": 0,
      "recent_sales_baseline_rank": 5,
      "raw_roas_baseline_rank": 4,
      "demand_baseline_rank": 5
    }
  ]
}